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Monthly Archives: July 2017

Better Safe than Sorry…

By |July 31st, 2017|

I am getting mixed signals on algos, portfolio picks, and fundamentals. I have been analyzing a number of portfolio picks and comparing them to the weekly forecasts. I have also looked at the fundamentals on these commodities. I am getting conflicting signals across the board. I think it is best to stay out of any new trades this week and see where we end up at weeks end. I will continue to look for any underpriced options, but nothing found so far. The markets of interest for this week are

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Events that Matter and Why – Economic Releases

By |July 31st, 2017|

Wednesday, August 2 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 7:15 AM CTJob creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending. This gives the market a preview of what to expect in Friday’s U.S. employment report.Crude Oil Inventories (EIA) 9:30 AM CTInfluences the price of petroleum products which also impacts growth and inflation.Thursday, August 3Natural Gas Inventories (EIA) 9:30 AM CTIndicates the change in supply in underground storage for the last weekFriday, July 28Unemployment Rate

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Hot Dog! Another Trade.

By |July 26th, 2017|

In Honor of an American Classic. I have another trade for you that is low risk, but may have a good payoff. I was just discussing Hogs with Pete Mazza and received a text from a friend at a baseball game in San Francisco. Hot dogs came up and I decided to check out Lean Hogs on the Algos. I have a Long Entry for Lean Hogs. Our Portfolio Optimizer is giving me a forecast of 78 and change. Looking at the fundamentals, it's all about the cash side. Short term has been really bullish. Look at

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Coffee & Cocoa…A Sour Bean?

By |July 26th, 2017|

No Gourmet Blend. I just posted some new option trades in the Long Shot Report. I like Coffee and Cocoa to the downside. We reversed our earlier Coffee position for a few reasons. One is that the algorithms gave us a reversal on Monday. The other is that The Coffee is coming from an overbought condition. The near-term supply seems abundant with a slowed demand factor. Coffee stocks seem high at the moment and weather conditions are conducive for growing product. From a strictly technical

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Volatility Trade.

By |July 25th, 2017|

With all of the uncertainty we can expect to see this year, a volatility trade makes sense. After years of quantitative easing and trying to do things that were never their job in the first place, the Fed is trying to focus on their mission statement. With a strong possibility of increasing rates, chaos in Greece, Merkel spinning plates while dealing with Brexit and President Trump, volatility is not going to disappear anytime soon. One trade that may profit from all of the unpredictability has

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Events that Matter and Why – Economic Releases

By |July 25th, 2017|

Wednesday, July 26 Crude Oil Inventories (EIA) 9:30 AM CTInfluences the price of petroleum products which also impacts growth and inflationFOMC Statement 1:00 PM CTThe Fed determines interest rate policy at FOMC meetingsThursday, July 27Natural Gas Inv...

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Trade Summary.

By |July 25th, 2017|

Profit taking and where we are. Our trades from the "Five Card Draw" Blog are closed out except for the Eurodollar trade. I plan to hold on to it, but will probably be recommending a put to turn the trade into a spread. Exact strike prices will be posted in the Long Shot Report. Our other trades are looking pretty good. We took profits on Corn of $212.50 per option. Feeder Cattle was good for $425.00 per option. Those of you that took profits on last week's Monday Soybean Meal recommendation

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